Should you buy now, or wait for a better time?
I hear this question from buyers in DC, Maryland, and Virginia constantly, and I get why you'd ask it. Putting your money into a home is a huge decision, and nobody wants to look back and wish they'd waited for a lower rate or a better price.
A study by AD Mortgage looked at 23 years of housing data across all 50 states and DC, comparing what happened when buyers purchased right away against what happened when they waited two years.
Buying now won in 61% of those scenarios.
Is it better to buy a home now or wait? According to AD Mortgage's 23-year analysis, buying immediately produced a better financial outcome than waiting two years in 70% of scenarios in DC from 2000 to 2022. The advantage varied by state and by year, but waiting for a lower rate specifically did not reliably pay off, even when rates actually fell.
What the Study Actually Found
AD Mortgage compared two paths for every state and year from 2000 to 2022: buy a home now, or wait two years and buy later. For each scenario, they compared the same core numbers:
- The home price
- A 15% down payment
- The monthly mortgage payment at that year's average rate
- For the waiting scenario, two years of savings set aside at 10% of household income each year
Whichever path cost less overall counted as the winner for that state and year. Across every combination, buying now came out ahead 61% of the time.
The win rate wasn't the same everywhere:
- California and Florida: buying now won 74% of the time, the highest in the study
- West Virginia: buying now won only 39% of the time, the lowest in the study
DC is included in this study as its own market alongside all 50 states; buying now won 70% of the study. If you're weighing your own timeline, I can walk through what the closest comparable numbers look like for DC Metro specifically.
Why Waiting for Lower Rates Doesn't Always Pay Off
Ask any buyer why they want to wait, and rates usually come up first. It makes sense on the surface: if rates drop, a home costs less to finance, so waiting should pay off if there's good reason to believe rates are heading down.
The study found two stretches where that assumption fell apart:
- From 2000 to 2002, average rates fell from 8.05% to 6.54%, yet buying now won only 34% of scenarios
- From 2013 to 2015, rates moved from 3.98% to 3.85%, and buying in 2013, the higher-rate year, still won 84% of scenarios
A lower rate two years from now doesn't erase what happens to home prices and your savings in the meantime. Both examples show the same pattern: the math depends on more than the rate alone.
The Winning Strategy Changed Almost Every Year
If you're hoping for a clear signal on when to buy, the data won't give you one. The strategy that won flipped again and again over these 23 years:
- From 2003 to 2005, buying now won roughly 94% to 100% of scenarios
- From 2007 to 2010, waiting won every single year, tied to the housing crash
- From 2015 to 2017, buying now won 92% to 100% of scenarios again
- In 2018, buying now won only 2% of scenarios, as rates fell fast into 2020 before home prices caught up
- From 2020 to 2022, buying now won 100% of scenarios, all three years
No economist called these swings ahead of time. Waiting for the market to send a clear signal means betting on something nobody, not even professional forecasters, has predicted reliably.
The Real Question Is Whether You're Ready
This study leaves out a few things on purpose: home equity, price appreciation, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. It's a straight comparison of purchase and financing costs, not the full picture of owning a home.
Prices and rates will keep moving whether you buy now or later, and nobody can tell you exactly where they'll land in two years, in DC Metro or anywhere else.
What you can control is your own readiness:
- Your savings
- Your budget
- How comfortable you feel with the numbers in front of you
Across the full 23 years of this study, financial readiness predicted good outcomes more reliably than market timing did.
So instead of watching rates or prices for a signal that may never come, ask yourself one question: does a home fit your budget today?
FAQ: Buying Now vs Waiting
Is it financially better to buy a home now or wait two years?
According to AD Mortgage's 23-year study, buying immediately produced a better financial outcome than waiting two years in 61% of scenarios across all 50 states and DC from 2000 to 2022.
Does waiting for lower mortgage rates usually pay off?
Not reliably. The study found periods where rates fell and waiting still lost, including 2000 to 2002 and 2013 to 2015, because home prices and reduced savings time offset the rate benefit.
What should I consider instead of trying to time the market?
Financial readiness, your savings, your budget, and your comfort with current numbers, predicted good outcomes more consistently than market timing across the full 23-year study period.
Does this study apply to DC Metro specifically?
DC is included in the study alongside all 50 states. State-level win rates varied significantly, from 39% in West Virginia to 74% in California and Florida, which suggests local conditions matter and are worth reviewing for your specific situation.
Wondering what buying now versus waiting would actually look like for your specific situation in DC, Maryland, or Virginia? Edward Slavis and the team can walk through the real numbers with you.
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