Rates Turned Back Up. Your Odds of Selling Didn't.

Mortgage rates ticked back up in July, now averaging about 6.7% on a three-month basis for 30-year fixed loans, according to Bankrate. Sales volume across the Washington DC metro area is still running roughly 40% below its 2022 peak. And yet the odds that a home listed today actually sells are almost identical to what they were in 2021, when rates sat near record lows.

Those three facts sound like they shouldn't line up. They do.

We break down the full picture, the data, and what it means for your specific neighborhood in our July 2026 Market Report. Watch it here:

| 👉 Watch the July 2026 DC Metro Market Report

Why are mortgage rates moving in the wrong direction this month?

Rates are back up to about 6.7% on our three-month average for 30-year fixed loans. That's a step backward after rates had been holding steadier.

Most analysts point to oil prices as the driver. Oil is back above $100 a barrel. Prices had come down when a ceasefire in Iran looked likely, but that stability hasn't held. Until oil settles down, it's hard to see the Fed lowering rates.

Worth noting, 6.7% is the national average. Our clients are consistently qualifying in the low sixes, and we recently had a client pre-approved right at 6%. Your actual rate depends on your credit, your debt-to-income, and your ability to repay, so the national number isn't the whole story. If you want to know what you'd actually qualify for, we can connect you with one of our preferred lenders.

Are home prices still rising in the DC metro area?

Yes. The median sale price across all home types in DC keeps stepping up every spring and hasn't given that ground back. Detached homes, condos, every property type we track is sloping upward.

In July 2021, at the height of the red-hot market, the median sale price was around $375,000. Today, condos alone are selling for a median of over $400,000.

Price per square foot tells the same story. Some of those lines have been fairly flat over the last two to three years, but every single one is higher today than it was five years ago.

How much has DC metro area home sales volume dropped in 2026?

New listings are still well below their 2022 peak, though they landed slightly higher in 2024 and 2025 than they did in 2023. Where 2026 settles is still an open question. Overall volume and closed sales are both running about 40% below peak.

Here's the part that surprises most people: the share of listed homes that actually sell has barely moved. In 2021, 83 out of every 100 listed homes sold. Last year, it was 86 out of 100. As of July 1 this year, we're at 80 out of 100.

That's down slightly from 2023 and 2024, but it's right in line with 2021, the hottest market in recent memory. Fewer homes are being listed. But a listing today has essentially the same shot at selling as it did five years ago.

Is now a buyer's market or a seller's market in the DC metro area?

It depends entirely on where you look. As a general rule, under one month of supply is a red-hot seller's market, under two months is still a seller's market, around two and a half months starts to look balanced, and anything higher favors buyers.

Several of the submarkets we track are sitting at five-year highs of two to two and a half months of supply right now, and that's still a strong market. Condos, the weakest segment overall, are sitting at about four months of supply. That's a buyer's market, but it's not a bad one. Plenty of cities would be glad to have only four months of supply on their condos.

Why does the micro market matter more than the metro-wide numbers?

This is the part that actually decides your strategy.

Take AU Park detached homes. In five years of data, there have only been two or three data points above two months of supply, and each time it snapped back below that line almost immediately. That's still one of the hottest seller's markets in the metro area, with far more buyers than sellers.

Now take Trinidad condos. Supply there has climbed to 15 months. If not one more condo came on the market, it would take until Halloween of next year just to sell what's currently listed. In Trinidad right now, you can't give away a condo.

Same metro area. Same month. Two completely different markets.

So when someone asks how the market is doing, the honest answer starts with another question: which neighborhood, which property type, what condition, what amenities. A lot of the negative national headlines people hear about DC don't reflect what's actually happening at the macro level, and even the macro level isn't the number that matters most. The micro market is.

What This Means for You

Rates are elevated, and the timeline for relief is tied to oil prices settling down, not anything local. We don't have a firm answer on when that happens.

The market has slowed. Volume is down about 40% from the 2021 peak. But the odds that a listed home sells haven't changed. If your home is priced and marketed right, the buyers are still there.

Right now, this looks like one of the best windows to be a buyer in years. Inventory is up, homes are sitting longer, and buyers have more leverage than they've had in a while.

On the seller side, prices and price per square foot are still as high as they've ever been. That's not something to take for granted. Homes that are properly prepared, priced, and marketed are still getting the numbers sellers want. Homes that aren't, aren't.

Watch the Full July 2026 Market Report

The highlights above are a starting point. The full video walks through the exact neighborhoods and submarkets referenced here, along with all the underlying data.

| 👉 Watch the full July 2026 Market Report here

Final Thoughts

Rates ticked up. Volume is still down. And prices keep setting records anyway. The market you're actually in has far more to do with your neighborhood and property type than anything happening at the national level.

If you or someone you know is looking to buy, sell, rent, renovate, or refinance anything residential in the Washington, DC metro area, reach out for a free consultation. We'd love to be a resource.